Dianne Feeley
Posted January 14, 2025
Incoming president Donald J. Trump has called for the “largest deportation program in American history.” This presents a multi-front crisis for millions of immigrants and their families, particularly as Trump has expanded the category of who is “deportable.” He has even threatened to override the U.S. Constitution and end birthright citizenship, which was added to the Constitution following the abolition of slavery.
Trump demonizes immigrants, claiming they are poisoning, robbing, murdering and taking resources from citizens. While immigrants have left their countries for various reasons, stories reveal the desperation of those escaping war, violence, poverty and climate catastrophe.
Many Americans believe that immigrants without documentation should be deported because they snuck out of the orderly line for requesting asylum. But there is no orderly line! The system is broken, deliberately so.
Others may be uncomfortable that the country is becoming more diverse. In 1965 less than 5% of the population was born outside the United States while today it’s 15%. Further, almost 90% of the immigrants come from non-European countries. This country had open borders during most of our history, but as Chinese men were recruited to build the transcontinental railroad, exclusionary laws were put into effect.
Claiming a mandate, the Trump administration will implement a severe anti-immigration policy from Day One. Although incoming officials have not projected a target for how many they plan to deport during the first year, Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, talks tough about shutting down the border and initiating massive deportations. This can only be accomplished by canceling the various categories under which most immigrants without documentation find minimal protection.
Trump will also use trade as a bargaining chip. His threat to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian products is his opening bid to frighten Canadian and Mexican officials, forcing them to patrol their border with the U.S. A month before Trump’s inauguration the Canadian government proposed C$1.3 billion ($913.05 million) for enhanced border security as a shield against the proposed tariff increase. (While as many as a million people attempt to cross the Southern border each year, fewer than 20,000 cross the Northern one.) Yet Trump continues to up the rhetoric by demanding Canada become the 51st state.
Today, of the more than 40 million residents who immigrated to the United States, approximately 11 million are without papers. Of those 11 million almost 90% are working, representing nearly five percent of the total workforce. Already many employers and industries are investigating “workarounds” for their employees — yet there is an obvious danger of tying immigrants to a specific employer.
And despite all the talk about sealing the border, two-thirds of the 11 million arrived on a student, work or tourist visa and overstayed.
The Biden Legacy
While Trump has denounced Biden’s deportation record, the reality is that Biden has deported more people in each year of his presidency than Trump. During Trump’s first term about 1.2 million people were repatriated.
At the beginning of the COVID pandemic Trump resurrected Title 42 on health grounds, shutting down any possibility of asylum. That blanket order was in effect from March 2020 until May 2023, overlapping the Trump-Biden administrations. In fact, of the 4,677,540 repatriated under Biden, 2,754,120 were actually excluded under Title 42. Nonetheless it is Obama who holds the title of “Deporter-in-Chief” for having deported three million people over eight years in office.
While the Obama administration concentrated on deporting those immigrants who had been convicted of a crime, Trump widened the scope to all immigrants without documents. Currently there are about 40,000 immigrants who are in custody, with almost 80% housed in private prisons (mostly in Texas, Mississippi or California). Thomas Homan, nominated by Trump to be in charge of border security, talks about how the administration will begin with deporting “criminals.” In fact, according to recent figures no more than 20-33% of those deported are convicted of any crime.
While on paper the U.S. policy professes humanitarian values, the need to reunify families and encourages employment, the immigration system has not been updated to deal with the new reality of refugees. Here’s a snapshot of some of the realities.
- About 1.6 million asylum seekers are waiting to have their cases heard. The average wait time is 4.3 years. Under international law, asylum should be granted to those who fear credible harm at the hands of the state if returned but the U.S. government turns down most asylum requests. In 2020, for example, the Trump administration approved only 15,000.
- Another three to four million immigrants are awaiting hearings as well. When Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) evaluates these individuals as safe, they are released to their families or required to sign up for monitoring programs. Developed by the private prison industry, these include SmartLINKS and ankle and wrist monitors.
- At least 700,000 citizens from 17 different countries where wars or environmental disasters have occurred have been given Temporary Protective Status (TPS). This status ranges from six to 18 months and is often renewed. Applicants granted TPS receive work permits and are protected from deportation. If the Secretary of Homeland Security chooses not to renew the TPS provision for the individual country, those individuals revert to their previous status. Fourteen of the 17 countries were to come up for renewal in 2025, but Biden extended the deadline to 2026. Trump has called several of these countries, including Haiti, “shithole countries.”
- About 530,000 undocumented youth who came to the U.S. as children have received temporary protection under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). This policy was implemented by the Obama administration in June 2012 after several impressive sit-ins and demonstrations by immigrant youth. Like TPS, it provides work authorization and shields recipients from deportation. Yet DACA recipients lack legal status and a pathway to citizenship. Actually there are as many as three million “Dreamers” who did not apply while DACA was still accepting applicants. Although this program is popular with a majority of Americans, it may be shut down by a Supreme Court ruling or by Trump.
- Already 1.3 million people have received removal orders, but their country has not agreed to their return. The Trump team is working to find third countries willing to accept them.
The incoming administration’s plan is likely to target immigrant men — preferably single — in cities where they can be snatched up and deported: Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. The intention is to quickly deport them before legal challenges can be brought. In 2013 the ACLU reported that 83% of those deported did not have their case heard before a judge.
But even if the Trump Administration can’t deport all those arrested, the government could hold them by quickly expanding “soft housing.” One former official said they could prepare 25 closed department stores with cots, Port-a-Potties and basic food provisioning within 90 days. The Texas government has already volunteered 70 football fields of land for such housing.
Another problem a government deportation plan faces is the reality that the 4.6 million immigrants without papers live in “mixed status” families. Since some of their members are U.S. citizens, this gives those families a greater possibility of contesting the deportation. A study of communities where there have been mass workplace raids revealed extensive community trauma. But Tom Homan’s response to a CBS News question about whether there was a way to carry out mass deportations without separating families coldly remarked “Families can be deported together.”
The American Immigration Council estimated that “to arrest, detain, process, and deport one million people per year” would cost $88 billion annually. The Council also concludes that mass deportation would decrease the U.S. GDP by 4.2-6.8%, or $1.1-1.7 trillion (in 2022 dollars) annually. (The New York Times editorial board published a long article pointing out that the U.S. economy needs an annual 1.6 million immigrants just to maintain its economic growth. It concentrates its suggestions on an orderly process whereby the world provides the United States with its youngest and most resilient members. The Times editors began the article by calling for tightening border “security.”)
From what we know of previous mass deportations in the 1930s and 1950s, some immigrants will feel so insecure they self-deport. The American Immigration Council estimates self-deportation to be about 20% of the total, but I think the figure could be much higher — closer to 75%. Much of the Trump rhetoric against immigrants may be aimed at scaring them into leaving.
The Menace
Here are some of the ways Project 2025 outlines a deportation plan:
• Enabling a Nationwide Deportation Machine: It calls for allowing ICE to use “expedited removal” against immigrants found anywhere within the country. In addition to workplace raids, it would enable raids in schools, hospitals and religious institutions. The administration will attempt to use the Alien Enemy Act of 1798 in carrying through its project, an absurdity since the United States is not at war with any other country and so there are no “enemy aliens.” Trump has also suggested he may declare a national emergency.
• Militarizing the Borders: Project 2025 calls for “using military personnel and hardware” to prevent crossings at the borders. This means additional surveillance and walls. (For 2025 ICE has a budget of $350 million, up $30 million from the year before. But this budget is inadequate for Trump’s project.)
• Expanding Immigrant “Detention” Centers: It calls for more than doubling the number of immigrants detained while facing deportations. Currently, about 50,000 are imprisoned, most in privately operated facilities while others are in jails.
• Eliminating Programs: such as Temporary Protected Status programs for those coming from countries where there is a natural disaster or armed conflict. Established by Congress in 1990, it currently legalizes the status of people from 16 different countries for a specific and renewable time period.
The largest groups are 350,000 Venezuelans, 200,000 Haitians and 175,000 Ukrainians. These people have legal status and are able to work as long as the program is renewed. Trump attempted to get rid of the program during his first administration but was prevented from doing so by an ACLU legal challenge. Undoubtedly he will try again. Another target may be DACA. Other programs may be tightened up, such as H-B1 visas that allow for the entry of skilled foreign workers, H-B2 visas that cover low-wage workers, especially farmworkers and hotel industry workers (such as the Trump businesses use), or family reunification visas. Factions of Trump’s MAGA supporters are quarreling about the HB-1 program.
• Mandating Work Verification Programs: Project 2025 would expand E-Verify, a poorly organized system intended to prove that employees are eligible to work in the United States. The agricultural, construction and hotel industries depend on immigrant labor and are already seeking exceptions so they can continue to operate.
• Entangling Local and Federal Enforcement: Project 2025 calls for the expansion of state and local police involvement in the enforcement of federal immigration laws. Those who refuse face being denied federal funding, including schools that register and educate children of immigrants. This will undoubtedly target “sanctuary” cities, counties and states that have limited cooperation with ICE.
What Can We Do?
There are a number of organizations and unions around the country that have worked for immigrant justice for years. Socialists can help build campaigns that support those who have fled their countries because of war, violence — especially sexual violence — lack of work, or the ravages of climate change.
Particularly since the immigrant community mobilized to defeat the Sensenbrenner Bill. in the 2006-08 period, unions have increasingly supported the rights of the immigrants. Unions with a substantial number of immigrant workers include SEIU, HERE, UE and they have helped the AFL-CIO to be supportive as well. As AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler remarked, “An immigrant does not stand between you and a good job. A billionaire does.”
Labor delegations to Congress have stressed that the border is a distraction from workplace issues. They point out that all working people, regardless of immigration status, should have access to the full protection of labor and employment laws. It is the failure to do so that creates a “shadow economy” that creates exploitative and unsafe working conditions for those who lack legal status.
Here are a couple of suggestions of how we can protect those who lack legal status:
- Campaigns need to make clear to public officials that we oppose state and local governments collaborating with federal officials to carry out its deportation schemes.
- We need to raise the injustice of the immigration system, which is designed to “fail,” in our unions and community organizations. This means one-on-one discussions, bringing up the issue in a concrete way at meetings and conferences.
- In our communities, we need to find avenues to let those who are undocumented know that we have their backs. This may take the form of “community watches,” making sure their children are protected, and other methods of accompaniment.
Labor Notes hosted an online meeting for unionists in early January, attended by more than 200. One article cited five ways to assist members and included the National Immigration Law Center’s guide for employers to prevent persecution of workers, which suggested concrete contract demands the union could propose. In contrast to Trump’s demonization of immigrants, our message of solidarity views our neighbors and coworkers as helping build a stronger and healthier society. They have fled difficult conditions, often because of Washington’s policies.
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